Is It Safe to Get into the Real Estate Market?
Our analysis suggests that we are very likely in that time right now. In a moment I’ll give you the numbers to support that. Yet, let me explain the graphic below regarding what we call the SAFE ZONE.
As with the stock market, timing the real estate market looking for the bottom is more a matter of Luck than Skill. As the above graphic illustrates significant market shifts often aren’t realized till after they occur.
The biggest risk in waiting for the bottom is that when markets shift direction upward it often happens swiftly. We are experiencing a significant housing shortage locally and nationally. The swing up will likely find us in a hyper-active housing market where buyers have fewer choices, no negotiating leverage, and bidding wars for attractive homes.
Our analysis would indicate that we are clearly in the safe zone. We may see some further decline, yet the cost of being behind the upswing may represent the greater risk.
Orange County has already declined 13.4% from the pricing back in April of 2022. Active inventory has only increased by 4.3% while Pending sales have decreased by 33.5%. While these numbers seem bleak, they don't tell the entire story. There is no doubt... Orange County is still in a seller market with 1.7 months of inventory. In fact, in most markets right now, if a home is priced well and easy to show, we are still experiencing multiple offers in as little as 3-5 days on the market.
It's important to know that a recent article by Goldman Sachs predicted that the most overheated markets would likely see declines of 10-25%. As noted above, Orange County has already declined by 13.4% and we are clearly in that range today.
If you or someone you know are considering a real estate move in the next 12-24 months this may be the ideal time. We are clearly in the SAFE ZONE, particularly for anyone who intends to be in their home for an extended period.
Contact me today for a free no-obligation strategy session so we can explore your personal goals and address your specific situation to see if this is the right time for you.